The importance of guesstimating

Every now and then I like to put my blogging on hold to take stock of the market — pardon the pun.
It feels like business news reporters — both the print and electronic media versions — are throwing up their hands, almost giving up on trying to predict the market.
Fannie & Freddie’s move yesterday threw them for a loop, and they basically just shook their heads as most of them couldn’t fathom the move.

Psst… I think the dollar’s move had a little to do with it, guys.

So while I could sit here and tell you that Gold and Oil are both down today and the financials may be the most recent culprit of pulling the market lower — all of which happens to be true — I prefer to concentrate on finding a few stocks to put on my radar screen to do some due diligence on.

For those people who have questioned if due diligence means I’ll usually buy the company, I’d like to point out just the opposite is the case. After closely analyzing the numbers for most companies, I don’t pull the trigger on at least 90 percent of them.
The companies currently on my due diligence list are ones I’m not actually big fans of —  AMD and RMBS.

The question I’m trying to decipher the answer to is whether there’s a chance these stocks may take a slight pullback over the next few weeks, presenting the perfect buying opportunity. But, before I pull the trigger, I want to guesstimate what the probability is they will then bounce back a little to make the investment worth it.

Just remember the usual disclaimer: Don’t base any of your investment decisions on anything you read in my forum — do your own due diligence — or at least enough research to pick the right professional to handle the investing for you.


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