Stocks to watch — but don’t forget about alternative investments

 

 

WEDNESDAY — 6:23 AM — While I’m sure most business outlets will be reporting today about another go-round between Microsoft & Yahoo — this time with the Wall Street Journal reporting that Microsoft has supposedly reached out to News Corp. and Time Warner to lead to the break-up of the search giant, the saga is growing old with me. It leads me to wonder how many people on the street are already priced in for whatever they’re best-guess the end result will be, so this would be a fool’s play right now. This drama has more twists and turns, including the new revelation in the Journal’s report that Yahoo was still supposedly trying to make a deal after Microsoft initially walked away from the table. Memo to Steve Ballmer — if the deal will help Microsoft — just do it. Why the heck involve all these outside parties from Icahn, to Time Warner to News Corp.?

 

However, if you find this saga more interesting than I do, then you may be interested in an accompanying story in the Journal concerning Microsoft buying Powerset Inc,, an Internet search start-up.

 

Two stories I find more interesting are:

 

MarketWatch’s report that Starbucks plans to close 600 stores. While this may mean you won’t see Starbucks on what seems like every other corner in most major cities, it’s an interesting sign of the time. Not to pat myself on the back too much, but if you read through an earlier post, I predicted that McDonald’s plan to create its own niche in the coffee market was something to keep an eye for its affect on the street.  In a tough economy, when people can get a decent cup of java at their Dunkin’ Donuts or McDonald’s drive-thru for a better price, they may forego the pricier brand.

 

However, the stock I find most interesting to watch this morning is Johnson & Johnson, which has lots of news breaking around it this week, from an insulin pump made by its subsidiary Animas Corp. getting FDA approval, to the FDA approving its collagen facial filler, to an interesting story by TheStreet.com on J&J. Check out all the reports yourself at the bottom of Yahoo’s stock look-up page .

 

And, while all my talk today has been centered around stocks, don’t forget to keep your eye on alternative investments, as treasury notes, moneymarket accounts, bonds, as well as commodities and oil should be on every serious investor’s list.

 

An interesting sidenote is it was announced at last night’s selectmen’s meeting in Hull, Massachusetts that Standard & Poor’s has increased the town’s rating. Yet another reason why you don’t want to solely focus on stocks — even though this volatile market is presenting wonderful buying opportunities for certain companies.

 

Just remember the usual disclaimer — don’t base any of your investment decisions on anything you read in my little business blog — do your own research — or hire a qualified professional to do it for you.

Welcome to the second half of 2008!

 

6:27 AM — Welcome to July 1 — the official start of the second-half of the year!

 

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that due to the rising cost of oil and inflation concerns, many investors in the stock market are looking ahead to the second half of the year with dread. The doom and gloom report goes on to say that not only was this last quarter the worst since 2002, but it marks the third quarterly decline in a row.

 

The WSJ has another story indicating shares of Lehman Brothers hit their lowest level since 2000. The story goes on to to say there is speculation swirling that Lehman may have to hang up a “for sale” sign, which could be sold for a “bargain-basement price.”

 

Since I personally detest the on-going ad nauseum “the sky is falling” reporting from most business outlets lately, let me just point out that while everyone seems to have a firm grasp on the fact commodities and oil are hurting most American wallets — it only makes sense that anyone with money to invest on the street is looking into those same areas to invest some money. Of course, do your due diligence to decide which of those, if any, is the right investment for you.

 

At the same time, instead of indulging in misery over some particular stock you may own where the chart continues to spiral down, ask yourself if you still believe in the fundamentals of the company. If the answer is no, then get the heck out. If the answer is yes, then use this as an opportunity to buy more of the company at a deflated price.

 

But, no matter what else you do — for heaven’s sake — diversify yourself in this market. Keep some money on the sidelines in cash, then pick the best commodities/oil, bonds, moneymarket, cd’s, etf’s and stocks that you’ve done some solid due diligence on to be in your current portfolio.

 

As I said in a previous post — this is not your daddy’s market anymore. We live in a 24/7 news cycle, and more people are consistently trading in markets around the world.

 

If you don’t feel you have the ability to manage your money — then take it off the table, or hire a qualified professional you’ve checked out to handle your money for you. Even then — watch over their shoulder to make sure you’re comfortable with the decisions they are making. It’s your money — ask questions.

 

If you’re looking for further ideas on where to put your money in this market, MarketWatch has a good story today on investing in mining, energy and fertilizer companies. It’s worth a read.

 

Just remember the usual disclaimer — don’t base any of your investment decisions on anything in my little business blog. Do your own due diligence — or at least enough research to pick the right professional to do it for you.

This ain’t your daddy’s market anymore, baby!

If you’re an avid reader of this board, you may have noticed I didn’t bother posting anything new over the past several days.

 

That’s because despite the blips and dips in the market – there’s really been nothing earth-shattering to report.

 

Someone shot me an email saying he finds it difficult to keep money in this market, and questioned why I still have such passion for the street that I’ve devoted an entire blog to the subject.

 

There’s no quick answer for that, other than perhaps I believe it’s important to keep your eye on your money.

 

And it doesn’t matter where that money is, so long as you are comfortable with the decision you’ve made.

 

Some people prefer just putting their money in an Orange account at ING.

 

Others feel more comfortable with a safe, small return from CDs.

 

My personal preference is to find quality companies that are getting unfairly beaten up in a bad market and wait for the perfect pullback by the street to present the perfect buying opportunity to snatch-up a good stock cheap.

 

I don’t pretend to have any inside word or mystical powers, but my gut tells me that companies like Heinz and Proctor & Gamble are still going to be around when this market recovers — and will likely be trading at higher prices in a bullish market.

 

It’s the old “buy cheap & sell high” philosophy.

 

I also prefer moneymarket accounts over CD’s.

 

Again, just a personal preference.

 

And I think bonds are the investment to keep an eye on.

 

Again, no inside information or psychic powers that any of my ideas will pan out — it’s just the investment strategy I’m most comfortable with.

 

What I don’t have much use for is anyone who begins investment advice to others with words such as, “Over the past (fill in a number) years, the S&P has outperformed……” Or “Just put your money in an index fund, if you don’t know what to do with it….”

 

Idiots.

 

And only another idiot would listen to them.

 

The simple response to anyone spewing such nonsense is to simply point out that a stock’s prior performance is absolutely no indication of what will happen in the future.

 

In other words — this ain’t your daddy’s market anymore, baby.

 

The rules have changed. The street doesn’t sleep at night. News is disseminated 24/7.

 

I simply disdain silly freshmen-style rhetoric by people who sat through a few year’s of college at “X” University, and now come out flashing their degree in economics and believe they have more insight than someone who’s actually been investing in the market over the past couple of decades.

 

Some of the best investors on the street never sat through a day of Economics 101.

 

It’s about reading, researching and picking that perfect moment to snatch up a quality investment that will give you a much greater return than anything else out there.

 

The bottom line — do your own due diligence, and keep your own eye on your own money.

 

I’ll leave you with one tip:

 

One of the first things I do each morning is to check the futures market…

 

And speaking of futures — I’ll see you Monday.

 

(The Usual Disclaimer: Don’t base any investment decisions on anything you read in my little blog — do your own research — or at least enough research to pick the right professional to do it for you.)

Stearns’ Hedge Fund Managers Indicted; Ambac & MBIA disappointed by Moody’s downgrade

 

6:52 AM — June 20 — The front page of this morning’s Wall Street Journal has a photo of one of the Bear Stearns fund managers being led away in handcurrs. For me, it conjures an eerie reminiscent feeling of Enron, although on a personal level I feel what these fund managers are accused of doing is a lot less hurtful than what Enron was up to. That’s not to say the charges against Bear Stearns’ managers aren’t very serious in nature. According to the WSJ, they have been indicted by a grand jury in Brooklyn and charged with misleading investors when their fund was in peril, lying about their financial interest in the portfolios and detroying evidence in the investigation.

 

The New York Times has a story this morning about all the people jumping ship at Yahoo. The story says what has been an on-going trickle of employees leaving over the past two years has in recent days turned into a flood of employees making a mass exodus.

 

Listening to Squawk Box this morning, Joe Kernan reported that both MBIA and Ambac are surprised by their recent downgrades by Moody’s. Ummm…. have they looked at their stock prices lately?

On my “to do due diligence on” list today is energy stocks.

 

The usual disclaimer: Don’t base any investment decisions on anything you read in my little blog. Do your own due diligence — or hire a professional to do it for you.

Oil… Oil… &… oh yeah… Oil

6:30 AM - June 19 — File this under “this can’t be good news for oil prices” — Bloomberg is reporting a militant attack has shut the offshore Bonga oilfield in Nigeria.

 

In more oil news, the New York Times has a story indicating Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and BP, along with Chevron and some smaller oil companies, are in the midst of talks with Iraq’s Oil Ministry concerning no-bid contracts to service the largest fields in Iraq.

 

 

The NY Times has another story stating that although President Bush was pushing Congress yesterday to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil exploration and to lift the federal ban on offshore drilling, there are actually no drill-ships available to do the drilling, with the existing drill-ships throughout the world all booked solid for the next five years.

 

Hmm… maybe I should be looking for a good stock play on the owners or manufacturers of drilling ships.

Royal Bank of Scotland warning of crash & Spielberg may bid Paramount buh-bye

7:25 AM — June 18 — According to The Wall Street Journal this morning, Steven Spielberg’s Dreamworks are closing in on a deal with Reliance ADA Group, which is one of India’s biggest entertainment conglomerates. If the deal goes through, this could give Spielberg & Co. enough equity to bid buh-bye to Paramount Pictures.

 

According to MarketWatch, it apears that Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd, a drugmaker based in India, is closing in on a deal to sell generic versions of Pfizer’s cholesterol-fighting drug Lipitor, as well as Caudet, which is taken for both cholestorol and high blood pressure treatments.

 

One of my favorite business reporters, Charlie Gasparino, was on Squawk Box this morning discussing Lehman Bros. Gasparino believes Blackstone may be considering taking a stake in the struggling financial. Gasparino also warned that unless Lehman makes some major changes soon, he expects further job cuts at Lehman.

 

The Telegraph in the UK has a story indicating the Royal Bank of Scotland has issued a warning to its clients to brace for a full-fledged crash within the next three months in global stock and credit markets.

 

Reminder: Don’t base any investment decisions on anything in my little blog. Do your own due diligence, or hire a professional to do it for you.

Housing Report Due; Goldman Expected to Report Earnings Loss & Bush Admin. Pushing New Lending Program

6:30 AM - TUESDAY — Look for the housing starts report to be released this morning at 8:30. Let’s face it — it’s a no-brainer that it will be down again.

 

There’s news on the Goldman Sachs front today:

 

The Economic Times is reporting Goldman has invested $50 million in Sterling & Wilson, which is one of India’s top mechanical, electrical and plumbing contracting companies.

 

Forbes has a rundown on how Goldman will be reporting its second quarter earnings today, which the street expects to be lower.

 

Forbes also has a good rundown on what’s going on in the current commodities market.

 

I caught Dennis Gartman on Fast Money last night, and he believes Saudi Arabia’s recent announcement that they may start pumping out more oil won’t really affect the current market, since the type of oil they will be pumping is thicker in quality than what is most needed for the majority of U.S. demand.

 

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Bush administration is trying to push through a U.S. mortgage lending program, which Europe has embraced for many years that makes it easier for a homebuyer to obtain a loan.

 

Not that this is any hot-off-the-presses news, but the WSJ also has a good re-cap this morning of how even hedge funds are having a hard time of it in this volatile market.

 

On my “to do due diligence list” this morning is bonds, which some on the street think may be getting ready to rally.

 

Reminder: Don’t base any of your investment decisions on anything in my little blog. Do your own due diligence, or hire a professional to do it for you.

Lehman Reports Today & Sirius Deal May Get Done After All

6:15 AM - MONDAY –Bloomberg reported this morning that the biggest exporter in the world, Saudi Arabia, may announce plans to increase pumping an extra 200,000 barrels a day of oil, beginning next month. The question is how, or if, this will affect the price of oil.

 

If you’ve been looking for someone to point at for the Bear Stearns downfall, which many believe set the rest of the financials into a tailspin — get your fingers ready. The Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that following a yearlong investigation, federal prosecutors are getting ready to file criminal charges against two former hedge fund managers of Bear Stearns, Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tanning.

  

On the heels of American International Group reporting its two largest quarterly losses since its inception, the WSJ is also reporting that AIG’s board ousted its chief executive, Martin Sullivan, and replaced him on Sunday with Robert Willumstad, who was AIG’s chairman, with a lot of experience at Citigroup under his belt.

 

With the street awaiting the (ahem) “profit” report from Lehman today, comes word via Barron’s that Lehman’s has exposure of $65 to $70 billion in mortgage and real estate.

Stock on my watch list today is Sirius, with The Washington Post reporting the FCC chief may finally clear the way for the XM-Sirius deal, albeit with some caveats.

 

Make it a great day — and remember not to base any of your investment decisions on information in my little blog — do your own due diligence, or hire a professional to do it for you.

Exxon Dumping U.S. Gas Stations; Yahoo & Google Teaming Up

6:45 AM, FRIDAY — The New York Times is reporting that Exxon Mobil is dumping its retail gas business in the U.S. due to “very challenging” business conditions for its gas stations. However, out of the approximately 12,000 stations with the Exxon Mobil brand currently in the U.S., around 75 percent already are owned by others.

 

The Wall Street Journal has a story this morning indicating that Microsoft is no longer pursuing Yahoo, which has opened the door for Yahoo to ink a search-advertising deal with Google. Yahoo is saying it expects this deal could put around $800 million a year in their pocket.

 

Right on the heels of news yesterday that InBev would like to acquire Anheuser-Busch; TheStreet.com is reporting that Anheuser-Busch is discussing a possible merger with Mexico’s Grupo Modelo.

 

Have a great day, and try to go home with more green in your wallet than you leave with this morning.

Citi to close hedge fund & InBev wants to buy Anheuser-Busch

 

The Wall Street Journal has the two big stories of the day:

 

7 AM, THURSDAY — Just 11 months after Citigroup bought the Old Lane Partners hedge fund for more than $800 million, Citigroup has decided to close the fund. 

 

 

 

InBev NV has made an unsolicited bid to buy Anheuser-Busche Cos for $46.4 billion. In my opinion, this may be a good deal for Anheuser shareholders; however, Squawk Box mentioned this morning that InBev would likely close all of Aneheuser’s U.S. plants, which doesn’t bode so well for the U.S. economy. Would this Bud still be for you if it was made by a Belgian-Brazilian giant?

 

With all the talk on the street comparing Lehman to Bear Stearns, just keep in mind that Lehman’s still has access to the fed window — not that I’m trying to paint a rosy picture of Lehman’s predicament.

 

Stocks on my watch list today revolve around Palm announcing plans to sell Centro through Verizon. Let’s see how this news affects these stocks.